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Short-term fluctuations in the foreign exchange market


cashback forexternational cashbackforex forex cashback easy cashbackforexpip on the daily fluctuations in foreign exchange 100%cashbackforexs roughly between 0.8% and 1.5% (that forexcashbackeasy, one to two cents, using the terminology of the foreign exchange market is 100 points to 200 points), fluctuations can reach more than 5% (that is, 700 points to 1000 points) on the foreign exchange market exchange rates regularly fluctuate greatly illustrates the two main characteristics of the foreign exchange market: first, the The risk is great; second, in the foreign exchange market investment The possibility of obtaining huge profits for the foreign exchange market often appear short-term sharp fluctuations, economics called the overreaction to information (overshooting) For what is the foreign exchange market overreaction, economics has always been a debate, there are now roughly the following three explanations First, the spot price of foreign exchange and foreign exchange rates of long-term equilibrium The price deviation people often talk in the newspaper, a certain currency exchange rate is currently overvalued, or a certain currency exchange rate has been far below its reasonable price these words refer to this phenomenon The spot price of foreign exchange excessively deviated from the long-term equilibrium price of foreign exchange can also be explained by a variety of reasons, may be the spot price is too low or too high, may also be the long-term equilibrium price is estimated to be too low or too high from the market operation itself, when there is not enough speculative capital (little trading in the market), or when there is too much speculative capital in the foreign exchange market (overheated market trading), the fluctuation of the spot price exceeds its long-term equilibrium price is not an incomprehensible phenomenon Second, the short-term equilibrium price fluctuation of foreign exchange will always exceed its long-term equilibrium price fluctuation This explanation assumes that All the factors that will affect the foreign exchange market will have a role in the price fluctuations of foreign exchange, but the effect of this role in time and channel differences, resulting in short-term equilibrium price deviation from the long-term equilibrium price For foreign exchange short-term equilibrium price deviation from the long-term equilibrium price of the phenomenon, the current economics popular explanation is that when the government to expand the money supply or reduce interest rates, the market prices do not immediately rise, resulting in the actual The foreign exchange market reacts quickly, the exchange rate of the national currency falls sharply, so that the short-term equilibrium price of foreign exchange is excessively lower than the long-term equilibrium price and when prices in fully digest the money supply growth factors will rise, the actual money supply will fall, the short-term equilibrium price of foreign exchange will gradually recover to converge with the long-term equilibrium price Third, the foreign exchange market is not an efficient market The foreign exchange market is not an efficient market, that is, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange price can not fully reflect the market in a certain period of time all the information, resulting in the actual price of foreign exchange often excessively deviated from the equilibrium price The short-term sharp fluctuations of the foreign exchange market may be due to market participants subjective exclusion of certain information, one-sided acceptance or excessive acceptance of certain information, so that the foreign exchange price is excessively distorted; may also be some of the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations of information to cover up some other Equally important information, resulting in large fluctuations in foreign exchange prices Second, if the foreign exchange market is not an efficient market, it will lead to some corrective actions in the market, such as the intervention of profit-motivated speculators in the market, the need to accurately release information affecting the market, government intervention, etc. These corrective actions will sometimes make the actual price and the equilibrium price converge, and sometimes it will further distort the market price Volatility From the actual volatility of the foreign exchange market now, the foreign exchange market in the long term may be an information efficient market, but in the short term is far from being able to prove that the biggest impact on the foreign exchange market daily volatility is the news, which includes economic and political two categories In addition, the market investors willingness and psychological factors, and often make these news on the foreign exchange market to further expand the impact of the